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Bayer Leverkusen vs Werder Bremen — Bundesliga 2026

Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
L. Bailey 75'
M. Kruse 90+5', 13'
M. Rashica 37'
3/17/2019BundesligaBundesliga · Round 26BayArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen61%
×Draw21%
Werder Bremen18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayer Leverkusen
2.06
Werder Bremen
1.03

Bayer Leverkusen creates 100% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen
2.27
Werder Bremen
1.05

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen
1.01
Werder Bremen
1.84

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen-0.06on par
Werder Bremen+0.06on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen ↓

Werder Bremen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen or draw
82%
Bayer Leverkusen or Werder Bremen
79%
Draw or Werder Bremen
39%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2+
37%
Werder Bremen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals
87%
Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals
61%
Bayer Leverkusen 3+ goals
34%
Werder Bremen 1+ goals
64%
Werder Bremen 2+ goals
28%
Werder Bremen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen (draw refunded)
77%
Werder Bremen (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

Werder Bremen away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.84 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen attack 2.27 + Werder Bremen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.06

Werder Bremen attack 1.05 + Bayer Leverkusen defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bayer Leverkusen scores more
61%
level
21%
Werder Bremen scores more
18%

Bayer Leverkusen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
L. BaileyBayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen · M
8.9

Match Events

13'
M. Kruse↳ M. Eggestein
37'
Lars Bender
37'
M. Rashica↳ M. Kruse
40'
Aleksandar Dragović
46'
Paulinho← K. Bellarabi
46'
K. Havertz← C. Aránguiz
65'
M. Harnik← M. Rashica
71'
Nuri Şahin
75'
F. Bartels← J. Eggestein
75'
L. Bailey
84'
M. Weiser← L. Bender
84'
S. Langkamp← D. Klaassen
89'
Jiří Pavlenka
90'
Wendell
90+5'
M. Kruse↳ M. Harnik

Possession

70%Bayer

Shots

15Bayer

Pass accuracy

56%Bayer

Statistics

BayerWerder
Overview
70%Possession30%
15Total Shots11
10Corners3
9Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots11
2On Target5
6Off Target4
7Blocked2
12Inside Box8
3Outside Box3
Passing
70%Possession30%
692Total Passes290
601Accurate Passes200
87%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen 1–3 Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 in Bundesliga on March 17, 2019.

Goals: M. Kruse (13', 90+5'), M. Rashica (37'), L. Bailey (75').

Bayer Leverkusen controlled possession (70%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at BayArena in Leverkusen.