Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Carlos Stein vs Deportivo Llacuabamba — Primera División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba
10/12/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 18Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Carlos Stein43%
×Draw22%
Deportivo Llacuabamba35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.88
Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.69

Carlos Stein creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 13 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.21
Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.69

allows per match

Carlos Stein
1.68
Deportivo Llacuabamba
2.54

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Deportivo Llacuabamba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
65%
Carlos Stein or Deportivo Llacuabamba
78%
Draw or Deportivo Llacuabamba
57%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
85%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
56%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
29%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals
50%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
55%
Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.21 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.88

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 1.69 + Carlos Stein defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
43%
level
22%
Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more
35%

Carlos Stein at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Carlos Stein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlos Stein vs Deportivo Llacuabamba

Carlos Stein and Deportivo Llacuabamba drew 3-3 in Primera División on October 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.