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Carlos Renaux U20 vs Criciuma U20 — Catarinense U20 2026

Carlos Renaux U20
Carlos Renaux U20
Preview
18:00
Criciuma U20
Criciuma U20
7/25/2026Catarinense U20Catarinense U20 · Round 17
62%
Criciuma U20
model favours
16%21%62%

Criciuma U20 are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Carlos Renaux U2016%
×Draw21%
Criciuma U2062%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Renaux U20
0.89
Criciuma U20
1.96

Criciuma U20 creates 120% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 30 away

creates per match

Carlos Renaux U20
1.14
Criciuma U20
1.20

allows per match

Carlos Renaux U20
2.71
Criciuma U20
0.63

finishing

Carlos Renaux U20+0.00on par
Criciuma U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Renaux U20 ↓

Criciuma U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Carlos Renaux U20 or draw
38%
Carlos Renaux U20 or Criciuma U20
79%
Draw or Criciuma U20
84%

Winning margin

Carlos Renaux U20 wins by 2+
5%
Criciuma U20 wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Carlos Renaux U20 1+ goals
59%
Carlos Renaux U20 2+ goals
22%
Carlos Renaux U20 3+ goals
6%
Criciuma U20 1+ goals
86%
Criciuma U20 2+ goals
58%
Criciuma U20 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Carlos Renaux U20 (draw refunded)
21%
Criciuma U20 (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Renaux U20 at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Criciuma U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Renaux U20 attack 1.14 + Criciuma U20 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.89

Criciuma U20 attack 1.20 + Carlos Renaux U20 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Carlos Renaux U20 scores more
16%
level
21%
Criciuma U20 scores more
62%

Criciuma U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Criciuma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Criciuma U20 have won 3 in a row
  • Criciuma U20 score first in only 25% of matches
  • Both teams score in 70% of Carlos Renaux U20’s matches
  • Criciuma U20 matches are rarely goalless — only 3.1% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LDL
U20
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carlos Renaux U20 face Criciuma U20 (Catarinense U20)

Catarinense U20 returns with Carlos Renaux U20 hosting Criciuma U20. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.