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Carlos A. Mannucci vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Carlos A. Mannucci
Carlos A. Mannucci
PST
23:00
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
11/7/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Carlos A. Mannucci44%
×Draw27%
UTC Cajamarca29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.38
UTC Cajamarca
1.07

Carlos A. Mannucci creates 29% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 144 away

creates per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.13
UTC Cajamarca
0.91

allows per match

Carlos A. Mannucci
1.24
UTC Cajamarca
1.63

finishing

Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par
UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos A. Mannucci ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Carlos A. Mannucci or draw
71%
Carlos A. Mannucci or UTC Cajamarca
73%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
56%

Winning margin

Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+
21%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals
75%
Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals
40%
Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals
16%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
66%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
29%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)
60%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos A. Mannucci at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.24 · 99 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.13 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Carlos A. Mannucci scores more
44%
level
27%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
29%

Carlos A. Mannucci at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Carlos A. Mannucci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carlos A. Mannucci face UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Carlos A. Mannucci hosting UTC Cajamarca. Match starts November 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.