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Carlisle vs Hartlepool — League #43 2026

Carlisle
Carlisle
Preview
15:00
Hartlepool
Hartlepool
12/28/2026League #43League #43 · Round 25Brunton Park
Big match
53%
Carlisle
model favours
53%23%25%

Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Carlisle53%
×Draw23%
Hartlepool25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlisle
1.86
Hartlepool
1.20

Carlisle creates 55% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 26 away

creates per match

Carlisle
2.00
Hartlepool
1.15

allows per match

Carlisle
1.25
Hartlepool
1.73

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par
Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Hartlepool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw
75%
Carlisle or Hartlepool
77%
Draw or Hartlepool
47%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+
30%
Hartlepool wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals
84%
Carlisle 2+ goals
55%
Carlisle 3+ goals
28%
Hartlepool 1+ goals
70%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
34%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)
68%
Hartlepool (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 2.00 + Hartlepool defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Hartlepool attack 1.15 + Carlisle defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Carlisle scores more
53%
level
23%
Hartlepool scores more
25%

Carlisle at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Carlisle
WWLLL
Hartlepool
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carlisle vs Hartlepool — Match Preview

Carlisle face Hartlepool on December 28, 2026 in this League #43 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Carlisle host Hartlepool at Brunton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.