Carl Zeiss Jena 2–1 FSV Zwickau: Result & Stats

Carl Zeiss Jena

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FSV Zwickau

P. Tietz 74' (pen)

F. Brügmann 62'

T. Wachsmuth 13' (pen)

8/27/2018

League #80 · Round 5Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena57%

×Draw25%

FSV Zwickau18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss JenaExpected goals in this matchFSV Zwickau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.80

Carl Zeiss Jena

1.64

FSV Zwickau

0.80

Carl Zeiss Jena creates 105% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

0.60

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena

1.60

FSV Zwickau

1.00

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena

0.60

FSV Zwickau

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par

FSV Zwickau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena ↓

FSV Zwickau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena or draw

82%

Carl Zeiss Jena or FSV Zwickau

75%

Draw or FSV Zwickau

43%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+

31%

FSV Zwickau wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals

81%

Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals

49%

Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals

23%

FSV Zwickau 1+ goals

55%

FSV Zwickau 2+ goals

19%

FSV Zwickau 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)

76%

FSV Zwickau (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

FSV Zwickau away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena attack 1.60 + FSV Zwickau defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

FSV Zwickau attack 1.00 + Carl Zeiss Jena defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena scores more

57%

level

25%

FSV Zwickau scores more

18%

Carl Zeiss Jena at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Guillaume Cros

13'

T. WachsmuthPenalty

35'

Florian Brugmann

45'

Rene Eckardt

46'

F. Brügmann← F. Brügmann

53'

Nico Antonitsch

55'

Marius Grosch

62'

F. Brügmann↳ P. Tietz

64'

T. Bonga← M. Könnecke

68'

Davy Frick

74'

P. TietzPenalty

77'

S. Eismann← R. Eckardt

79'

Christian Bickel

79'

L. Lauberbach← N. Antonitsch

85'

J. Schau← K. Pannewitz

Statistics

CarlFSV

Overview

6Corners3

Discipline

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0