Carl Zeiss Jena U19 4–1 Erzgebirge Aue U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Erzgebirge Aue U19

L. Fikaj 77'

P. Kampe 72'

R. Hasani 51'

P. Seidel 45' (OG)

N. Stacziwa 25'

8/14/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 3Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U1948%

×Draw21%

Erzgebirge Aue U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19Expected goals in this matchErzgebirge Aue U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.71

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.13

Erzgebirge Aue U19

1.71

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 26 away

2.02

creates per match

1.42

2.00

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.02

Erzgebirge Aue U19

1.42

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.00

Erzgebirge Aue U19

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Erzgebirge Aue U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 ↓

Erzgebirge Aue U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or draw

69%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or Erzgebirge Aue U19

79%

Draw or Erzgebirge Aue U19

52%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

28%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

88%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

63%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

35%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 1+ goals

82%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 2+ goals

51%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.00 · 60 matches

Erzgebirge Aue U19 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 2.02 + Erzgebirge Aue U19 defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.13

Erzgebirge Aue U19 attack 1.42 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

48%

level

21%

Erzgebirge Aue U19 scores more

31%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

N. Stacziwa

45'

P. SeidelOwn goal

46'

R. Hasani← K. Müller

51'

R. Hasani

55'

B. Efevberha← L. Fink

55'

F. Fischer← L. Schimkus

55'

M. Wagner← H. Häusler

70'

N. Schmidt← P. Seidel

72'

P. Kampe

74'

I. Hetmanchuk← R. Steinhäuser

74'

L. Winkler← M. Lanzendörfer

76'

L. Bahls← D. Pavlov

76'

L. Pohlenz← M. Kindel

76'

P. Wendisch← N. Stacziwa

77'

L. Fikaj

85'

D. Blessing← L. Fikaj

85'

S. Yüksel← P. Kampe

Carl

Erzgebirge

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

Seidel

Emmerich

Henkel

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Fikaj

Manager: M. Raychouni

46'▲R. Hasani←▼K. Müller

55'▲B. Efevberha←▼L. Fink

74'▲I. Hetmanchuk←▼R. Steinhäuser

74'▲L. Winkler←▼M. Lanzendörfer

85'▲D. Blessing←▼L. Fikaj

85'▲S. Yüksel←▼P. Kampe

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

HasaniEfevberhaHetmanchukWinklerBlessingYükselFendel

Manager: P. Hauck

55'▲F. Fischer←▼L. Schimkus

55'▲M. Wagner←▼H. Häusler

70'▲N. Schmidt←▼P. Seidel

76'▲L. Bahls←▼D. Pavlov

76'▲L. Pohlenz←▼M. Kindel

76'▲P. Wendisch←▼N. Stacziwa

Erzgebirge Aue U19 substitutes

FischerWagnerSchmidtBahlsPohlenzWendischBlankenburg

Match Recap: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Erzgebirge Aue U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 beat Erzgebirge Aue U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 14, 2024.

Goals: N. Stacziwa (25'), P. Seidel (45' o.g.), R. Hasani (51'), P. Kampe (72'), L. Fikaj (77').

The match was played at Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3 in Jena.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Erzgebirge Aue U19