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Carina Gubin vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
FT
1 – 2
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
M. Kochanowski 76'
N. Jaszczak 88'
D. Barbus 17'
11/6/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Stadion Miejski Gubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Carina Gubin44%
×Draw24%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carina Gubin
1.61
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.34

Carina Gubin creates 20% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 69 away

creates per match

Carina Gubin
1.38
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Carina Gubin
1.29
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Carina Gubin+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carina Gubin ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Carina Gubin or draw
68%
Carina Gubin or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
76%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
56%

Winning margin

Carina Gubin wins by 2+
22%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Carina Gubin 1+ goals
80%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
48%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
22%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
74%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
39%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
58%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carina Gubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 84 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carina Gubin attack 1.38 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.61

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Carina Gubin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Carina Gubin scores more
44%
level
24%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
32%

Carina Gubin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
D. Barbus
76'
M. Kochanowski
88'
N. Jaszczak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carina Gubin vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry beat Carina Gubin 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 6, 2021.

Goals: D. Barbus (17'), M. Kochanowski (76'), N. Jaszczak (88').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Gubin in Gubin.