Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cariari Pococi vs Limon FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
CANC
21:00
Limon FC
Limon FC
2/13/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cariari Pococi36%
×Draw24%
Limon FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariari Pococi
1.44
Limon FC
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 16 away

creates per match

Cariari Pococi
1.68
Limon FC
1.69

allows per match

Cariari Pococi
1.40
Limon FC
1.19

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par
Limon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Limon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw
60%
Cariari Pococi or Limon FC
76%
Draw or Limon FC
64%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
17%
Limon FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
76%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
42%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
18%
Limon FC 1+ goals
79%
Limon FC 2+ goals
45%
Limon FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
47%
Limon FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Limon FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Limon FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.44

Limon FC attack 1.69 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more
36%
level
24%
Limon FC scores more
40%

Limon FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Limon FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cariari Pococi vs Limon FC — Match Preview

Cariari Pococi face Limon FC on February 13, 2022 in this Liga de Ascenso fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.