Cariari Pococi 0–1 Futbol Consultants Moravia

Cariari Pococi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Futbol Consultants Moravia

10/27/2024

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 17Estadio Comunal Bernardo Veach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Cariari Pococi46%

×Draw24%

Futbol Consultants Moravia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cariari PocociExpected goals in this matchFutbol Consultants Moravia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.29

Cariari Pococi

1.67

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.29

Cariari Pococi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 124 away

1.68

creates per match

1.18

1.40

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Cariari Pococi

1.68

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.18

allows per match

Cariari Pococi

1.40

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Futbol Consultants Moravia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw

70%

Cariari Pococi or Futbol Consultants Moravia

76%

Draw or Futbol Consultants Moravia

54%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+

24%

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals

81%

Cariari Pococi 2+ goals

50%

Cariari Pococi 3+ goals

23%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals

72%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals

37%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)

61%

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.67

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.18 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more

46%

level

24%

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more

30%

Cariari Pococi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff