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Cariari Pococi vs Escorpiones Belén — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
8/10/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 3Estadio Ebal Rodríguez Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Cariari Pococi40%
×Draw24%
Escorpiones Belén36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariari Pococi
1.59
Escorpiones Belén
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 87 away

creates per match

Cariari Pococi
1.68
Escorpiones Belén
1.60

allows per match

Cariari Pococi
1.40
Escorpiones Belén
1.51

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par
Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Escorpiones Belén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw
64%
Cariari Pococi or Escorpiones Belén
76%
Draw or Escorpiones Belén
60%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
20%
Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
80%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
47%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
21%
Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
78%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
44%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
53%
Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Escorpiones Belén away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.59

Escorpiones Belén attack 1.60 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more
40%
level
24%
Escorpiones Belén scores more
36%

Cariari Pococi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cariari Pococi vs Escorpiones Belén

Escorpiones Belén beat Cariari Pococi 4-2 in Liga de Ascenso on August 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ebal Rodríguez Aguilar in Guápiles.