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Cariari Pococi vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
11/5/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 18Polideportivo de Cariarí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Cariari Pococi48%
×Draw24%
Aserri FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariari Pococi
1.68
Aserri FC
1.23

Cariari Pococi creates 37% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 106 away

creates per match

Cariari Pococi
1.68
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

Cariari Pococi
1.40
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw
72%
Cariari Pococi or Aserri FC
76%
Draw or Aserri FC
52%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
25%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
81%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
50%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
24%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
71%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
35%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
63%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.68

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more
48%
level
24%
Aserri FC scores more
28%

Cariari Pococi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cariari Pococi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cariari Pococi vs Aserri FC

Cariari Pococi and Aserri FC drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Polideportivo de Cariarí in Cariari.