Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cardiff vs West Ham — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
Preview
19:45
West Ham
West Ham
11/4/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 14Cardiff City Stadium
Big match
34%
Cardiff
model favours
34%32%34%

Even after scoring first, West Ham win only 44%

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
71%
under 2.5 goals
37%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cardiff34%
×Draw32%
West Ham34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
0.95
West Ham
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 3 away

creates per match

Cardiff
0.90
West Ham
0.67

allows per match

Cardiff
1.20
West Ham
1.00

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
66%
Cardiff or West Ham
68%
Draw or West Ham
66%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
13%
West Ham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
61%
Cardiff 2+ goals
25%
Cardiff 3+ goals
7%
West Ham 1+ goals
61%
West Ham 2+ goals
24%
West Ham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
50%
West Ham (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 41 matches

West Ham away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 0.90 + West Ham defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

West Ham attack 0.67 + Cardiff defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Cardiff scores more
34%
level
32%
West Ham scores more
34%

Cardiff at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • West Ham have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • West Ham win just 23% of their away games
  • 23% of West Ham’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • 32% of West Ham’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cardiff
WLLWW
Ham
WLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cardiff face West Ham (Championship)

Championship returns with Cardiff hosting West Ham. Match starts November 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cardiff host West Ham at Cardiff City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.