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Cardiff vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
Preview
14:00
West Brom
West Brom
4/24/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 45Cardiff City Stadium
Big match
38%
Cardiff
model favours
38%29%33%

West Brom score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cardiff38%
×Draw29%
West Brom33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.15
West Brom
1.04

Cardiff creates 11% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cardiff
0.90
West Brom
0.89

allows per match

Cardiff
1.20
West Brom
1.39

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
67%
Cardiff or West Brom
71%
Draw or West Brom
62%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
16%
West Brom wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
68%
Cardiff 2+ goals
32%
Cardiff 3+ goals
11%
West Brom 1+ goals
65%
West Brom 2+ goals
28%
West Brom 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
54%
West Brom (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 41 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 0.90 + West Brom defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

West Brom attack 0.89 + Cardiff defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cardiff scores more
38%
level
29%
West Brom scores more
33%

Cardiff at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cardiff
WLLWW
Brom
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cardiff face West Brom (Championship)

Championship returns with Cardiff hosting West Brom. Match starts April 24, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cardiff host West Brom at Cardiff City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.