Cardiff 0–4 West Brom: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

West Brom

9/28/2021

Championship · Round 10Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Cardiff35%

×Draw28%

West Brom37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.22

Cardiff

1.17

West Brom

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 40 away

1.12

creates per match

1.19

1.25

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Cardiff

1.12

West Brom

1.19

allows per match

Cardiff

1.25

West Brom

1.21

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.09on par

West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

63%

Cardiff or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

65%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

14%

West Brom wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

69%

Cardiff 2+ goals

33%

Cardiff 3+ goals

11%

West Brom 1+ goals

70%

West Brom 2+ goals

34%

West Brom 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

48%

West Brom (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.25 · 33 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.12 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

West Brom attack 1.19 + Cardiff defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cardiff scores more

35%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

37%

West Brom at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff