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Cardiff vs Luton — Championship 2018

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Luton
Luton
R. Sawyers 85'
G. Osho 62'
L. Freeman 47'
8/30/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Cardiff41%
×Draw27%
Luton31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.32
Luton
1.11

Cardiff creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 21 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.05
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Cardiff
1.37
Luton
1.59

finishing

Cardiff+0.03on par
Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
69%
Cardiff or Luton
73%
Draw or Luton
59%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
19%
Luton wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
73%
Cardiff 2+ goals
38%
Cardiff 3+ goals
15%
Luton 1+ goals
67%
Luton 2+ goals
30%
Luton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
57%
Luton (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.05 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.32

Luton attack 0.85 + Cardiff defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cardiff scores more
41%
level
27%
Luton scores more
31%

Cardiff at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
J. BreeLutonLuton · M
7.6

Match Events

21'
Luke Freeman
45+1'
Elijah Adebayo
46'
F. Onyedinma← R. Burke
47'
L. Freeman↳ F. Onyedinma
56'
G. Osho← L. Freeman
59'
R. Colwill← J. Ralls
59'
J. Philogene← M. Watters
62'
G. Osho↳ J. Bree
63'
Gabriel Osho
69'
C. Jerome← C. Morris
70'
R. Sawyers← A. Rinomhota
85'
R. Sawyers
87'
L. Berry← A. Campbell
87'
C. Woodrow← E. Adebayo

Possession

64%Cardiff

Shots

17Cardiff

Pass accuracy

56%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffLuton
Overview
64%Possession36%
17Total Shots14
5Corners2
9Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots14
2On Target4
11Off Target5
4Blocked5
7Inside Box7
10Outside Box7
Passing
64%Possession36%
482Total Passes260
379Accurate Passes164
79%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls15
0Yellow Cards3
4Offsides2

Championship: Cardiff 1–2 Luton

Luton beat Cardiff 2-1 in Championship on August 30, 2022.

Goals: L. Freeman (47'), G. Osho (62'), R. Sawyers (85').

Cardiff controlled possession (64%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.