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Cardiff vs Luton — Championship 2018

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Luton
Luton
8/10/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Cardiff44%
×Draw27%
Luton29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.35
Luton
1.04

Cardiff creates 30% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 117 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.21
Luton
0.94

allows per match

Cardiff
1.15
Luton
1.50

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
71%
Cardiff or Luton
73%
Draw or Luton
56%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
20%
Luton wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
74%
Cardiff 2+ goals
39%
Cardiff 3+ goals
15%
Luton 1+ goals
65%
Luton 2+ goals
28%
Luton 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
60%
Luton (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 149 matches

Luton away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.21 + Luton defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Luton attack 0.94 + Cardiff defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cardiff scores more
44%
level
27%
Luton scores more
29%

Cardiff at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cardiff 2 – 1 Luton

Cardiff beat Luton 2-1 in Championship on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.