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Cardiff vs Fulham — Championship 2018

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fulham
Fulham
8/30/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Cardiff30%
×Draw27%
Fulham43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.08
Fulham
1.36

Fulham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 48 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.21
Fulham
1.58

allows per match

Cardiff
1.15
Fulham
0.96

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Fulham+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Fulham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
57%
Cardiff or Fulham
73%
Draw or Fulham
70%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
12%
Fulham wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
66%
Cardiff 2+ goals
29%
Cardiff 3+ goals
10%
Fulham 1+ goals
74%
Fulham 2+ goals
39%
Fulham 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
41%
Fulham (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 149 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.21 + Fulham defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Fulham attack 1.58 + Cardiff defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cardiff scores more
30%
level
27%
Fulham scores more
43%

Fulham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Cardiff 1–1 Fulham

Cardiff and Fulham drew 1-1 in Championship on August 30, 2019.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.