Cardiff 4–2 Fulham: Result & Stats | Premier League

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.48

Cardiff

1.33

Fulham

1.48

Fulham creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

1.11

creates per match

0.97

2.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Cardiff

1.11

Fulham

0.97

allows per match

Cardiff

2.00

Fulham

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par

Fulham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

59%

Cardiff or Fulham

75%

Draw or Fulham

66%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

15%

Fulham wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

74%

Cardiff 2+ goals

38%

Cardiff 3+ goals

15%

Fulham 1+ goals

77%

Fulham 2+ goals

43%

Fulham 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

45%

Fulham (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Fulham away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.56 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.11 + Fulham defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fulham attack 0.97 + Cardiff defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cardiff scores more

34%

level

25%

Fulham scores more

41%

Fulham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

C. Paterson

Cardiff · F

7.9

Match Events

11'

A. Schürrle↳ J. Seri

15'

Josh Murphy↳ S. Bamba

19'

Calum Chambers

20'

B. Reid

33'

Aron Gunnarsson

34'

R. Sessegnon↳ A. Mitrović

36'

Kevin McDonald

45'

Stefan Johansen

46'

A. Mawson← C. Chambers

58'

F. Ayité← J. Seri

65'

C. Paterson↳ B. Reid

68'

Sean Morrison

77'

J. Richards← A. Gunnarsson

78'

Sol Bamba

82'

K. Harris← Josh Murphy

82'

L. Vietto← S. Johansen

86'

L. Damour← H. Arter

87'

K. Harris↳ Víctor Camarasa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffFulham

Overview

40%Possession60%

22Total Shots9

4Corners4

15Fouls16

Shots

22Total Shots9

5On Target4

10Off Target3

7Blocked2

13Inside Box3

9Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

313Total Passes479

200Accurate Passes368

64%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3