Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Čarda Martjanci vs Šampion Celje — 3. SNL - East 2020

Čarda Martjanci
Čarda Martjanci
Preview
15:30
Šampion Celje
Šampion Celje
8/15/20263. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 1
61%
Čarda Martjanci
model favours
61%18%21%

Čarda Martjanci and Šampion Celje have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
75%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Čarda Martjanci61%
×Draw18%
Šampion Celje21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čarda Martjanci
2.54
Šampion Celje
1.43

Čarda Martjanci creates 78% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Čarda Martjanci
2.75
Šampion Celje
1.44

allows per match

Čarda Martjanci
1.42
Šampion Celje
2.33

finishing

Čarda Martjanci+0.00on par
Šampion Celje+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čarda Martjanci ↓

Šampion Celje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Čarda Martjanci or draw
79%
Čarda Martjanci or Šampion Celje
82%
Draw or Šampion Celje
39%

Winning margin

Čarda Martjanci wins by 2+
40%
Šampion Celje wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Čarda Martjanci 1+ goals
92%
Čarda Martjanci 2+ goals
72%
Čarda Martjanci 3+ goals
46%
Šampion Celje 1+ goals
76%
Šampion Celje 2+ goals
42%
Šampion Celje 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Čarda Martjanci (draw refunded)
75%
Šampion Celje (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čarda Martjanci at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Šampion Celje away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čarda Martjanci attack 2.75 + Šampion Celje defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.54

Šampion Celje attack 1.44 + Čarda Martjanci defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Čarda Martjanci scores more
61%
level
18%
Šampion Celje scores more
21%

Čarda Martjanci at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Čarda Martjanci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Martjanci
DWWW
Celje
LWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Čarda Martjanci face Šampion Celje (3. SNL - East)

3. SNL - East returns with Čarda Martjanci hosting Šampion Celje. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.