Caracas FC 0–0 Deportivo Tachira FC: Result & Stats

Caracas FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Tachira FC

3/3/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Caracas FC42%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Tachira FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Caracas FCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Tachira FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.06

Caracas FC

1.29

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.06

Caracas FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 147 away

1.58

creates per match

1.12

1.01

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Caracas FC

1.58

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.12

allows per match

Caracas FC

1.01

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw

69%

Caracas FC or Deportivo Tachira FC

72%

Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC

58%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals

72%

Caracas FC 2+ goals

37%

Caracas FC 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals

29%

Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)

58%

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.58 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.12 + Caracas FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Caracas FC scores more

42%

level

28%

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more

31%

Caracas FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff