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Carabobo FC vs Zulia FC — Primera División 2018

Carabobo FC
Carabobo FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Zulia FC
Zulia FC
2/22/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado (Valencia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Carabobo FC51%
×Draw26%
Zulia FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carabobo FC
1.54
Zulia FC
0.97

Carabobo FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 66 away

creates per match

Carabobo FC
1.46
Zulia FC
1.06

allows per match

Carabobo FC
0.88
Zulia FC
1.61

finishing

Carabobo FC+0.00on par
Zulia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabobo FC ↓

Zulia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Carabobo FC or draw
76%
Carabobo FC or Zulia FC
74%
Draw or Zulia FC
49%

Winning margin

Carabobo FC wins by 2+
26%
Zulia FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Carabobo FC 1+ goals
79%
Carabobo FC 2+ goals
45%
Carabobo FC 3+ goals
20%
Zulia FC 1+ goals
62%
Zulia FC 2+ goals
25%
Zulia FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Carabobo FC (draw refunded)
68%
Zulia FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabobo FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 146 matches

Zulia FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabobo FC attack 1.46 + Zulia FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Zulia FC attack 1.06 + Carabobo FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Carabobo FC scores more
51%
level
26%
Zulia FC scores more
24%

Carabobo FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Carabobo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carabobo FC vs Zulia FC

Carabobo FC beat Zulia FC 3-2 in Primera División on February 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado (Valencia).