Carabobo FC 0–2 Deportivo La Guaira: Result & Stats

Carabobo FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo La Guaira

11/15/2020

Primera División · Group A - 10Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Carabobo FC43%

×Draw27%

Deportivo La Guaira29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carabobo FCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Guaira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.05

Carabobo FC

1.33

Deportivo La Guaira

1.05

Carabobo FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 148 away

1.46

creates per match

1.22

0.88

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Carabobo FC

1.46

Deportivo La Guaira

1.22

allows per match

Carabobo FC

0.88

Deportivo La Guaira

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carabobo FC+0.00on par

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabobo FC ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Carabobo FC or draw

71%

Carabobo FC or Deportivo La Guaira

73%

Draw or Deportivo La Guaira

57%

Winning margin

Carabobo FC wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Carabobo FC 1+ goals

74%

Carabobo FC 2+ goals

38%

Carabobo FC 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Carabobo FC (draw refunded)

59%

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carabobo FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.88 · 146 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carabobo FC attack 1.46 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + Carabobo FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carabobo FC scores more

43%

level

27%

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

29%

Carabobo FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Carabobo FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff