Carabanchel 1–1 Leganés II: Result & Stats

Carabanchel

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leganés II

Sergio Navarro 86'

A. Tahif 66'

12/6/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Estadio La Mina de Carabanchel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Carabanchel32%

×Draw26%

Leganés II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarabanchelExpected goals in this matchLeganés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.41

Carabanchel

1.20

Leganés II

1.41

Leganés II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

1.07

creates per match

1.89

0.93

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Carabanchel

1.07

Leganés II

1.89

allows per match

Carabanchel

0.93

Leganés II

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carabanchel+0.00on par

Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carabanchel ↓

Leganés II →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Carabanchel or draw

58%

Carabanchel or Leganés II

74%

Draw or Leganés II

68%

Winning margin

Carabanchel wins by 2+

13%

Leganés II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Carabanchel 1+ goals

70%

Carabanchel 2+ goals

34%

Carabanchel 3+ goals

12%

Leganés II 1+ goals

76%

Leganés II 2+ goals

41%

Leganés II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Carabanchel (draw refunded)

43%

Leganés II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Carabanchel at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 80 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Carabanchel attack 1.07 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Carabanchel defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carabanchel scores more

32%

level

26%

Leganés II scores more

42%

Leganés II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Yael Ballesteros← Alex Sancris

66'

A. Tahif

69'

Torres← Javi Redondo

69'

José Luis Cortés← Viti

73'

Javier Rentero← A. Tahif

82'

Edu Río← J. de la Cruz

82'

Sergio Navarro← Santa

82'

De Miguel← Víctor Dimas

86'

Sergio Navarro

Carabanchel

Leganés

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Paco Gallardo

69'▲Torres←▼Javi Redondo

69'▲José Luis Cortés←▼Viti

82'▲Edu Río←▼J. de la Cruz

82'▲Sergio Navarro←▼Santa

82'▲De Miguel←▼Víctor Dimas

Carabanchel substitutes

TorresCortésRíoNavarroMiguel

Manager: Carlos Martínez

56'▲Yael Ballesteros←▼Alex Sancris

73'▲Javier Rentero←▼A. Tahif

Leganés II substitutes

BallesterosRentero