CAPS United 3–1 Herentals: Result & Stats

CAPS United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Herentals

11/26/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 34National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

CAPS United41%

×Draw31%

Herentals28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAPS UnitedExpected goals in this matchHerentals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.85

CAPS United

1.10

Herentals

0.85

CAPS United creates 29% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 95 away

1.22

creates per match

0.74

0.96

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

CAPS United

1.22

Herentals

0.74

allows per match

CAPS United

0.96

Herentals

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAPS United+0.00on par

Herentals+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAPS United ↓

Herentals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

CAPS United or draw

72%

CAPS United or Herentals

69%

Draw or Herentals

59%

Winning margin

CAPS United wins by 2+

17%

Herentals wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CAPS United 1+ goals

67%

CAPS United 2+ goals

30%

CAPS United 3+ goals

10%

Herentals 1+ goals

57%

Herentals 2+ goals

21%

Herentals 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CAPS United (draw refunded)

60%

Herentals (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAPS United at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Herentals away — creates 0.74, concedes 0.98 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAPS United attack 1.22 + Herentals defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Herentals attack 0.74 + CAPS United defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CAPS United scores more

41%

level

31%

Herentals scores more

28%

CAPS United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CAPS United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff