Capivariano U20 vs Porto Football U20

Capivariano U20

Preview

18:00

Porto Football U20

7/31/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 9

52%

Capivariano U20

model favours

52%24%24%

Capivariano U20 sit 15, Porto Football U20 42 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Capivariano U2052%

×Draw24%

Porto Football U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Capivariano U20Expected goals in this matchPorto Football U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.03

Capivariano U20

1.66

Porto Football U20

1.03

Capivariano U20 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

1.65

creates per match

0.89

1.18

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Capivariano U20

1.65

Porto Football U20

0.89

allows per match

Capivariano U20

1.18

Porto Football U20

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Capivariano U20+0.00on par

Porto Football U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capivariano U20 ↓

Porto Football U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Capivariano U20 or draw

76%

Capivariano U20 or Porto Football U20

76%

Draw or Porto Football U20

48%

Winning margin

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+

28%

Porto Football U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Capivariano U20 1+ goals

81%

Capivariano U20 2+ goals

49%

Capivariano U20 3+ goals

23%

Porto Football U20 1+ goals

64%

Porto Football U20 2+ goals

28%

Porto Football U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)

69%

Porto Football U20 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capivariano U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Porto Football U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capivariano U20 attack 1.65 + Porto Football U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.66

Porto Football U20 attack 0.89 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Capivariano U20 scores more

52%

level

24%

Porto Football U20 scores more

24%

Capivariano U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Capivariano U20 and Porto Football U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

WDDLD

U20

LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff