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Capivariano U20 vs Água Santa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
Preview
18:00
Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
8/11/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 11
52%
Capivariano U20
model favours
52%23%25%

Both teams score in 70% of Água Santa U20’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Capivariano U2052%
×Draw23%
Água Santa U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capivariano U20
1.82
Água Santa U20
1.19

Capivariano U20 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Capivariano U20
1.65
Água Santa U20
1.19

allows per match

Capivariano U20
1.18
Água Santa U20
2.00

finishing

Capivariano U20+0.00on par
Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capivariano U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Capivariano U20 or draw
75%
Capivariano U20 or Água Santa U20
77%
Draw or Água Santa U20
48%

Winning margin

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
29%
Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Capivariano U20 1+ goals
84%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
54%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
27%
Água Santa U20 1+ goals
70%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
33%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
68%
Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capivariano U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capivariano U20 attack 1.65 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Capivariano U20 scores more
52%
level
23%
Água Santa U20 scores more
25%

Capivariano U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Capivariano U20 sit 15, Água Santa U20 5 in the table
  • Capivariano U20 and Água Santa U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WDDLD
U20
DWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Capivariano U20 face Água Santa U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Capivariano U20 hosting Água Santa U20. Match starts August 11, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.