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Kuktosh vs Khujand — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Kuktosh
Kuktosh
FT
2 – 3
Khujand
Khujand
9/18/2019Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 15Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kuktosh31%
×Draw25%
Khujand44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kuktosh
1.26
Khujand
1.55

Khujand creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 44 away

creates per match

Kuktosh
1.13
Khujand
1.48

allows per match

Kuktosh
1.63
Khujand
1.39

finishing

Kuktosh+0.00on par
Khujand+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuktosh ↓

Khujand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kuktosh or draw
56%
Kuktosh or Khujand
75%
Draw or Khujand
69%

Winning margin

Kuktosh wins by 2+
13%
Khujand wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kuktosh 1+ goals
72%
Kuktosh 2+ goals
36%
Kuktosh 3+ goals
13%
Khujand 1+ goals
79%
Khujand 2+ goals
46%
Khujand 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kuktosh (draw refunded)
41%
Khujand (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuktosh at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Khujand away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.39 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuktosh attack 1.13 + Khujand defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Khujand attack 1.48 + Kuktosh defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kuktosh scores more
31%
level
25%
Khujand scores more
44%

Khujand at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Kuktosh 2–3 Khujand

Khujand beat Kuktosh 3-2 in Vysshaya Liga on September 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Neftyanik in Rudaki.