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Istaravshan vs Khujand — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Istaravshan
Istaravshan
FT
2 – 1
Khujand
Khujand
4/11/2019Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 2Stadion Istaravshan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Istaravshan35%
×Draw26%
Khujand39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istaravshan
1.29
Khujand
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 43 away

creates per match

Istaravshan
1.21
Khujand
1.44

allows per match

Istaravshan
1.29
Khujand
1.37

finishing

Istaravshan+0.00on par
Khujand+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istaravshan ↓

Khujand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Istaravshan or draw
61%
Istaravshan or Khujand
74%
Draw or Khujand
65%

Winning margin

Istaravshan wins by 2+
15%
Khujand wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Istaravshan 1+ goals
72%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
37%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
14%
Khujand 1+ goals
74%
Khujand 2+ goals
39%
Khujand 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Istaravshan (draw refunded)
48%
Khujand (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istaravshan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

Khujand away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istaravshan attack 1.21 + Khujand defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Khujand attack 1.44 + Istaravshan defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Istaravshan scores more
35%
level
26%
Khujand scores more
39%

Khujand at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Istaravshan 2–1 Khujand

Istaravshan beat Khujand 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on April 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Istaravshan in Istaravshan.