Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Armagh City vs Newington Youth — Premier Intermediate League 2017

Armagh City
Armagh City
FT
2 – 2
Newington Youth
Newington Youth
5/1/2018Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Relegation Round - 4Holm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Armagh City33%
×Draw23%
Newington Youth44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armagh City
1.50
Newington Youth
1.77

Newington Youth creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Armagh City
1.77
Newington Youth
1.92

allows per match

Armagh City
1.62
Newington Youth
1.23

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par
Newington Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

Newington Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw
56%
Armagh City or Newington Youth
77%
Draw or Newington Youth
67%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+
15%
Newington Youth wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals
78%
Armagh City 2+ goals
44%
Armagh City 3+ goals
19%
Newington Youth 1+ goals
83%
Newington Youth 2+ goals
53%
Newington Youth 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)
43%
Newington Youth (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Newington Youth away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.77 + Newington Youth defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Newington Youth attack 1.92 + Armagh City defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Armagh City scores more
33%
level
23%
Newington Youth scores more
44%

Newington Youth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Newington Youth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Armagh City vs Newington Youth

Armagh City and Newington Youth drew 2-2 in Premier Intermediate League on May 1, 2018.

The match was played at Holm Park in Armagh.