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Parvoz vs Xayr — Vysshaya Liga 2014

Parvoz
Parvoz
FT
2 – 1
Xayr
Xayr
4/27/2014Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 3Stadion Furudgokh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Parvoz36%
×Draw23%
Xayr41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Parvoz
1.60
Xayr
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 12 away

creates per match

Parvoz
1.12
Xayr
1.42

allows per match

Parvoz
2.04
Xayr
2.08

finishing

Parvoz+0.00on par
Xayr+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Parvoz ↓

Xayr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Parvoz or draw
59%
Parvoz or Xayr
77%
Draw or Xayr
64%

Winning margin

Parvoz wins by 2+
17%
Xayr wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Parvoz 1+ goals
80%
Parvoz 2+ goals
47%
Parvoz 3+ goals
22%
Xayr 1+ goals
82%
Xayr 2+ goals
52%
Xayr 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Parvoz (draw refunded)
46%
Xayr (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Parvoz at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

Xayr away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Parvoz attack 1.12 + Xayr defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.60

Xayr attack 1.42 + Parvoz defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Parvoz scores more
36%
level
23%
Xayr scores more
41%

Xayr at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Xayr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Parvoz vs Xayr

Parvoz beat Xayr 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on April 27, 2014.

The match was played at Stadion Furudgokh in Ghafurov.