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Cape Town City vs Black Leopards — Premier Soccer League 2018

Cape Town City
Cape Town City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Black Leopards
Black Leopards
11/11/2018Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 9Cape Town Stadium (Cape Town)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cape Town City53%
×Draw25%
Black Leopards22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cape Town City
1.56
Black Leopards
0.91

Cape Town City creates 71% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 47 away

creates per match

Cape Town City
1.32
Black Leopards
0.87

allows per match

Cape Town City
0.94
Black Leopards
1.81

finishing

Cape Town City+0.00on par
Black Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Town City ↓

Black Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cape Town City or draw
78%
Cape Town City or Black Leopards
75%
Draw or Black Leopards
47%

Winning margin

Cape Town City wins by 2+
27%
Black Leopards wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cape Town City 1+ goals
79%
Cape Town City 2+ goals
46%
Cape Town City 3+ goals
21%
Black Leopards 1+ goals
60%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
23%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cape Town City (draw refunded)
70%
Black Leopards (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Town City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Black Leopards away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Town City attack 1.32 + Black Leopards defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Black Leopards attack 0.87 + Cape Town City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cape Town City scores more
53%
level
25%
Black Leopards scores more
22%

Cape Town City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cape Town City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cape Town City vs Black Leopards

Cape Town City beat Black Leopards 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Cape Town Stadium (Cape Town).