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Canuelas vs Dock Sud — Primera C 2026

Canuelas
Canuelas
FT
1 – 2
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
W. Silva 28'
N. Pombo 67' (pen)
M. Blanco 63'
11/18/2019Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 16Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Canuelas36%
×Draw28%
Dock Sud36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canuelas
1.18
Dock Sud
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 75 away

creates per match

Canuelas
1.24
Dock Sud
1.20

allows per match

Canuelas
1.17
Dock Sud
1.12

finishing

Canuelas+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canuelas ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Canuelas or draw
64%
Canuelas or Dock Sud
72%
Draw or Dock Sud
64%

Winning margin

Canuelas wins by 2+
15%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Canuelas 1+ goals
69%
Canuelas 2+ goals
33%
Canuelas 3+ goals
12%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
70%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
33%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Canuelas (draw refunded)
50%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canuelas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canuelas attack 1.24 + Dock Sud defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dock Sud attack 1.20 + Canuelas defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Canuelas scores more
36%
level
28%
Dock Sud scores more
36%

Canuelas at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Canuelas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
W. Silva
63'
M. Blanco
67'
N. PomboPenalty
90'
F. Quinteros

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Canuelas 1–2 Dock Sud

Dock Sud beat Canuelas 2-1 in Primera C on November 18, 2019.

Goals: W. Silva (28'), M. Blanco (63'), N. Pombo (67' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arín in Cañuelas, Provincia de Buenos Aires.