Cantolagua 2–3 Pamplona: Result & Stats

Cantolagua

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Pamplona

4/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Municipal Cantolagua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Cantolagua38%

×Draw26%

Pamplona37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CantolaguaExpected goals in this matchPamplona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.36

Cantolagua

1.39

Pamplona

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 110 away

1.58

creates per match

1.15

1.57

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Cantolagua

1.58

Pamplona

1.15

allows per match

Cantolagua

1.57

Pamplona

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cantolagua+0.00on par

Pamplona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cantolagua ↓

Pamplona →

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cantolagua or draw

63%

Cantolagua or Pamplona

74%

Draw or Pamplona

62%

Winning margin

Cantolagua wins by 2+

17%

Pamplona wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cantolagua 1+ goals

75%

Cantolagua 2+ goals

40%

Cantolagua 3+ goals

16%

Pamplona 1+ goals

74%

Pamplona 2+ goals

39%

Pamplona 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cantolagua (draw refunded)

51%

Pamplona (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cantolagua at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

Pamplona away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cantolagua attack 1.58 + Pamplona defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.39

Pamplona attack 1.15 + Cantolagua defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cantolagua scores more

38%

level

26%

Pamplona scores more

37%

Cantolagua at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cantolagua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff