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Canon vs Union Douala — Elite One 2019

Canon
Canon
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Douala
Union Douala
4/2/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 6Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Canon45%
×Draw31%
Union Douala24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canon
1.16
Union Douala
0.77

Canon creates 51% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 85 away

creates per match

Canon
1.24
Union Douala
0.71

allows per match

Canon
0.84
Union Douala
1.08

finishing

Canon+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canon ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Canon or draw
76%
Canon or Union Douala
69%
Draw or Union Douala
55%

Winning margin

Canon wins by 2+
19%
Union Douala wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Canon 1+ goals
69%
Canon 2+ goals
32%
Canon 3+ goals
11%
Union Douala 1+ goals
54%
Union Douala 2+ goals
18%
Union Douala 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Canon (draw refunded)
65%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canon at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 90 matches

Union Douala away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canon attack 1.24 + Union Douala defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Union Douala attack 0.71 + Canon defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Canon scores more
45%
level
31%
Union Douala scores more
24%

Canon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Canon 1–0 Union Douala

Canon beat Union Douala 1-0 in Elite One on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Ngoa Ekélé in Yaoundé.