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Canon vs Panthère — Elite One 2019

Canon
Canon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Panthère
Panthère
3/23/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 2Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Canon43%
×Draw30%
Panthère27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canon
1.15
Panthère
0.84

Canon creates 37% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 64 away

creates per match

Canon
1.24
Panthère
0.84

allows per match

Canon
0.84
Panthère
1.05

finishing

Canon+0.00on par
Panthère+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canon ↓

Panthère →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Canon or draw
73%
Canon or Panthère
70%
Draw or Panthère
57%

Winning margin

Canon wins by 2+
18%
Panthère wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Canon 1+ goals
68%
Canon 2+ goals
32%
Canon 3+ goals
11%
Panthère 1+ goals
57%
Panthère 2+ goals
21%
Panthère 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Canon (draw refunded)
62%
Panthère (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canon at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 90 matches

Panthère away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canon attack 1.24 + Panthère defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

Panthère attack 0.84 + Canon defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Canon scores more
43%
level
30%
Panthère scores more
27%

Canon at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Canon 2–0 Panthère

Canon beat Panthère 2-0 in Elite One on March 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo in Yaoundé.