Canon 0–1 APEJES Academy: Result & Stats

Canon

FT

0 – 1

APEJES Academy

12/4/2019

Elite One · Round 11Stade Militaire

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Canon43%

×Draw29%

APEJES Academy28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CanonExpected goals in this matchAPEJES Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.93

Canon

1.24

APEJES Academy

0.93

Canon creates 33% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 67 away

1.24

creates per match

1.01

0.84

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Canon

1.24

APEJES Academy

1.01

allows per match

Canon

0.84

APEJES Academy

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Canon+0.00on par

APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canon ↓

APEJES Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Canon or draw

72%

Canon or APEJES Academy

71%

Draw or APEJES Academy

57%

Winning margin

Canon wins by 2+

19%

APEJES Academy wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Canon 1+ goals

71%

Canon 2+ goals

35%

Canon 3+ goals

13%

APEJES Academy 1+ goals

61%

APEJES Academy 2+ goals

24%

APEJES Academy 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Canon (draw refunded)

61%

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canon at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.84 · 90 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canon attack 1.24 + APEJES Academy defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

APEJES Academy attack 1.01 + Canon defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Canon scores more

43%

level

29%

APEJES Academy scores more

28%

Canon at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff