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Canillas vs Collado Villalba — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Canillas
Canillas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
10/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Estadio Canillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Canillas31%
×Draw28%
Collado Villalba40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canillas
1.04
Collado Villalba
1.23

Collado Villalba creates 18% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 49 away

creates per match

Canillas
1.04
Collado Villalba
1.02

allows per match

Canillas
1.45
Collado Villalba
1.04

finishing

Canillas+0.00on par
Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canillas ↓

Collado Villalba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Canillas or draw
60%
Canillas or Collado Villalba
72%
Draw or Collado Villalba
69%

Winning margin

Canillas wins by 2+
12%
Collado Villalba wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Canillas 1+ goals
65%
Canillas 2+ goals
28%
Canillas 3+ goals
9%
Collado Villalba 1+ goals
71%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
35%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Canillas (draw refunded)
43%
Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canillas at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.45 · 49 matches

Collado Villalba away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canillas attack 1.04 + Collado Villalba defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Collado Villalba attack 1.02 + Canillas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Canillas scores more
31%
level
28%
Collado Villalba scores more
40%

Collado Villalba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Collado Villalba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Canillas 0 – 1 Collado Villalba

Collado Villalba beat Canillas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Canillas in Madrid.