Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cancún vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cancún
Cancúnadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
11/26/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Cancún47%
×Draw26%
Mineros de Zacatecas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cancún
1.52
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.09

Cancún creates 39% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 136 away

creates per match

Cancún
1.51
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.24

allows per match

Cancún
0.94
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.53

finishing

Cancún+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cancún ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cancún or draw
73%
Cancún or Mineros de Zacatecas
74%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
53%

Winning margin

Cancún wins by 2+
24%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cancún 1+ goals
78%
Cancún 2+ goals
45%
Cancún 3+ goals
20%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
66%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
30%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cancún (draw refunded)
63%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cancún at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 101 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cancún attack 1.51 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.24 + Cancún defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cancún scores more
47%
level
26%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
27%

Cancún at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cancún will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cancún vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Cancún beat Mineros de Zacatecas 3-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo in Cancún.