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Cancún vs Durango — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Cancún
Cancún
Preview
01:00
Durango
Durango
8/16/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 4
56%
Cancún
model favours
56%24%20%

Cancún score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cancún56%
×Draw24%
Durango20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cancún
1.70
Durango
0.92

Cancún creates 85% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cancún
1.51
Durango
0.89

allows per match

Cancún
0.94
Durango
1.89

finishing

Cancún+0.00on par
Durango+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cancún ↓

Durango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cancún or draw
80%
Cancún or Durango
76%
Draw or Durango
44%

Winning margin

Cancún wins by 2+
31%
Durango wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cancún 1+ goals
82%
Cancún 2+ goals
51%
Cancún 3+ goals
24%
Durango 1+ goals
60%
Durango 2+ goals
23%
Durango 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cancún (draw refunded)
73%
Durango (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cancún at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 101 matches

Durango away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cancún attack 1.51 + Durango defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.70

Durango attack 0.89 + Cancún defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cancún scores more
56%
level
24%
Durango scores more
20%

Cancún at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cancún will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 25% of Cancún’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cancún
LWLDL
Durango
LLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cancún host Durango

August 16, 2026: Cancún take on Durango in Liga de Expansión MX. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.