Cancún 2–0 Celaya: Result & Stats

Cancún

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Celaya

1/12/2022

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Cancún43%

×Draw28%

Celaya29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CancúnExpected goals in this matchCelaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.04

Cancún

1.32

Celaya

1.04

Cancún creates 27% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 119 away

1.51

creates per match

1.15

0.94

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Cancún

1.51

Celaya

1.15

allows per match

Cancún

0.94

Celaya

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cancún+0.00on par

Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cancún ↓

Celaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cancún or draw

71%

Cancún or Celaya

72%

Draw or Celaya

57%

Winning margin

Cancún wins by 2+

20%

Celaya wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cancún 1+ goals

73%

Cancún 2+ goals

38%

Cancún 3+ goals

15%

Celaya 1+ goals

65%

Celaya 2+ goals

28%

Celaya 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cancún (draw refunded)

59%

Celaya (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cancún at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 101 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cancún attack 1.51 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.32

Celaya attack 1.15 + Cancún defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cancún scores more

43%

level

28%

Celaya scores more

29%

Cancún at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cancún will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff