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Can Tho vs Dak Lak — V.League 2 2020

Can Tho
Can Tho
FT
1 – 1
Dak Lak
Dak Lak
7/7/2020V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 6Sân vận động Cần Thơ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Can Tho37%
×Draw28%
Dak Lak35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Can Tho
1.23
Dak Lak
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Can Tho
1.14
Dak Lak
0.95

allows per match

Can Tho
1.41
Dak Lak
1.33

finishing

Can Tho+0.00on par
Dak Lak+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Can Tho ↓

Dak Lak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Can Tho or draw
65%
Can Tho or Dak Lak
72%
Draw or Dak Lak
63%

Winning margin

Can Tho wins by 2+
16%
Dak Lak wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Can Tho 1+ goals
71%
Can Tho 2+ goals
35%
Can Tho 3+ goals
13%
Dak Lak 1+ goals
69%
Dak Lak 2+ goals
33%
Dak Lak 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Can Tho (draw refunded)
52%
Dak Lak (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Can Tho at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Dak Lak away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Can Tho attack 1.14 + Dak Lak defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dak Lak attack 0.95 + Can Tho defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Can Tho scores more
37%
level
28%
Dak Lak scores more
35%

Can Tho at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Can Tho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Can Tho 1 – 1 Dak Lak

Can Tho and Dak Lak drew 1-1 in V.League 2 on July 7, 2020.

The match was played at Sân vận động Cần Thơ in Can Tho.