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Campodarsego vs Chions — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Campodarsego
Campodarsego
PST
13:00
Chions
Chions
4/5/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 34Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano (Campodarsego)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Campodarsego52%
×Draw24%
Chions23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campodarsego
1.68
Chions
1.04

Campodarsego creates 62% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 50 away

creates per match

Campodarsego
1.52
Chions
1.10

allows per match

Campodarsego
0.98
Chions
1.84

finishing

Campodarsego+0.00on par
Chions+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campodarsego ↓

Chions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Campodarsego or draw
77%
Campodarsego or Chions
76%
Draw or Chions
48%

Winning margin

Campodarsego wins by 2+
28%
Chions wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Campodarsego 1+ goals
81%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
50%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
24%
Chions 1+ goals
65%
Chions 2+ goals
28%
Chions 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Campodarsego (draw refunded)
69%
Chions (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campodarsego at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.98 · 100 matches

Chions away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campodarsego attack 1.52 + Chions defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.68

Chions attack 1.10 + Campodarsego defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Campodarsego scores more
52%
level
24%
Chions scores more
23%

Campodarsego at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Campodarsego host Chions

April 5, 2020: Campodarsego take on Chions in Serie D - Girone C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Campodarsego host Chions at Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano (Campodarsego).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.