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Campbelltown City vs MetroStars — South Australia NPL 2026

Campbelltown City
Campbelltown City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
MetroStars
MetroStars
3/8/2024South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 3Steve Woodcock Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Campbelltown City33%
×Draw23%
MetroStars44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Campbelltown City
1.52
MetroStars
1.79

MetroStars creates 18% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 89 away

creates per match

Campbelltown City
1.97
MetroStars
2.25

allows per match

Campbelltown City
1.33
MetroStars
1.08

finishing

Campbelltown City+0.00on par
MetroStars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Campbelltown City ↓

MetroStars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Campbelltown City or draw
56%
Campbelltown City or MetroStars
77%
Draw or MetroStars
67%

Winning margin

Campbelltown City wins by 2+
15%
MetroStars wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Campbelltown City 1+ goals
78%
Campbelltown City 2+ goals
45%
Campbelltown City 3+ goals
20%
MetroStars 1+ goals
83%
MetroStars 2+ goals
53%
MetroStars 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Campbelltown City (draw refunded)
43%
MetroStars (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Campbelltown City at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

MetroStars away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Campbelltown City attack 1.97 + MetroStars defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.52

MetroStars attack 2.25 + Campbelltown City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Campbelltown City scores more
33%
level
23%
MetroStars scores more
44%

MetroStars at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "MetroStars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Campbelltown City vs MetroStars

Campbelltown City beat MetroStars 2-0 in South Australia NPL on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Steve Woodcock Sports Centre in Adelaide.