Gimnasia Concepción 4–2 Sarmiento Resistencia

Gimnasia Concepción

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sarmiento Resistencia

G. Sosa 82', 73', 69'

E. Martínez 61'

E. Martínez 88'

L. Rodríguez 45+1'

8/16/2015

Torneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 3Estadio Manuel y Ramón Núñez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Gimnasia Concepción44%

×Draw29%

Sarmiento Resistencia26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gimnasia ConcepciónExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Resistencia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.86

Gimnasia Concepción

1.22

Sarmiento Resistencia

0.86

Gimnasia Concepción creates 42% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 116 away

1.20

creates per match

0.86

0.87

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Gimnasia Concepción

1.20

Sarmiento Resistencia

0.86

allows per match

Gimnasia Concepción

0.87

Sarmiento Resistencia

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnasia Concepción+0.00on par

Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia Concepción ↓

Sarmiento Resistencia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Gimnasia Concepción or draw

74%

Gimnasia Concepción or Sarmiento Resistencia

71%

Draw or Sarmiento Resistencia

56%

Winning margin

Gimnasia Concepción wins by 2+

20%

Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gimnasia Concepción 1+ goals

70%

Gimnasia Concepción 2+ goals

34%

Gimnasia Concepción 3+ goals

12%

Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals

58%

Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals

21%

Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia Concepción (draw refunded)

63%

Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia Concepción at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

Sarmiento Resistencia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.24 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia Concepción attack 1.20 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 0.86 + Gimnasia Concepción defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gimnasia Concepción scores more

44%

level

29%

Sarmiento Resistencia scores more

26%

Gimnasia Concepción at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gimnasia Concepción will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

L. Rodríguez

61'

E. Martínez

67'

E. Sesma← R. Blasco

67'

J. Cáceres← G. Garavano

69'

71'

73'

76'

82'

83'

R. Verón← E. Martínez

87'

J. Quiroga← M. Prost

88'

E. Martínez

Gimnasia

Sarmiento

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

76'▲S. Sena←▼M. Pintos

83'▲R. Verón←▼E. Martínez

87'▲J. Quiroga←▼M. Prost

Gimnasia Concepción substitutes

SenaVerónQuiroga

67'▲E. Sesma←▼R. Blasco

67'▲J. Cáceres←▼G. Garavano

71'▲L. Acosta←▼M. Alegre

Sarmiento Resistencia substitutes

SesmaCáceresAcosta

Torneo Federal A: Gimnasia Concepción 4–2 Sarmiento Resistencia

Gimnasia Concepción beat Sarmiento Resistencia 4-2 in Torneo Federal A on August 16, 2015.

Goals: L. Rodríguez (45+1'), E. Martínez (61', 88'), G. Sosa (69', 73', 82').

The match was played at Estadio Manuel y Ramón Núñez in Concepción del Uruguay, Provincia de Entre Rios.

Gimnasia Concepción vs Sarmiento Resistencia — Torneo Federal A 2015

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Gimnasia Concepción 4–2 Sarmiento Resistencia