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Cambuur vs Utrecht — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cambuur
Cambuur
Preview
09:00
Utrecht
Utrecht
7/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
44%
Cambuur
model favours
44%21%34%

Utrecht score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cambuur44%
×Draw21%
Utrecht34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambuur
2.00
Utrecht
1.75

Cambuur creates 14% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Cambuur
2.00
Utrecht
2.00

allows per match

Cambuur
1.50
Utrecht
2.00

finishing

Cambuur+0.00on par
Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambuur ↓

Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Cambuur or draw
66%
Cambuur or Utrecht
79%
Draw or Utrecht
56%

Winning margin

Cambuur wins by 2+
25%
Utrecht wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cambuur 1+ goals
86%
Cambuur 2+ goals
59%
Cambuur 3+ goals
32%
Utrecht 1+ goals
83%
Utrecht 2+ goals
52%
Utrecht 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Cambuur (draw refunded)
56%
Utrecht (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambuur at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Utrecht away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambuur attack 2.00 + Utrecht defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Utrecht attack 2.00 + Cambuur defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cambuur scores more
44%
level
21%
Utrecht scores more
34%

Cambuur at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cambuur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Cambuur have scored in 12 games running
  • Cambuur score first in only 19% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cambuur
WLWLD
Utrecht
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cambuur face Utrecht (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Cambuur hosting Utrecht. Match starts July 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.