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Cambuur vs Roda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Cambuur
Cambuur
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Roda
Roda
11/19/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 15Cambuur Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Cambuur52%
×Draw22%
Roda26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambuur
1.90
Roda
1.28

Cambuur creates 48% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 148 away

creates per match

Cambuur
2.19
Roda
1.38

allows per match

Cambuur
1.19
Roda
1.61

finishing

Cambuur+0.00on par
Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambuur ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cambuur or draw
74%
Cambuur or Roda
78%
Draw or Roda
48%

Winning margin

Cambuur wins by 2+
29%
Roda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cambuur 1+ goals
85%
Cambuur 2+ goals
56%
Cambuur 3+ goals
29%
Roda 1+ goals
72%
Roda 2+ goals
37%
Roda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cambuur (draw refunded)
67%
Roda (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambuur at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

Roda away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambuur attack 2.19 + Roda defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.90

Roda attack 1.38 + Cambuur defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cambuur scores more
52%
level
22%
Roda scores more
26%

Cambuur at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cambuur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cambuur vs Roda

Cambuur and Roda drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Cambuur Stadion in Leeuwarden.