Cambuur 3–1 Jong PSV U21: Result & Stats

Cambuur

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Jong PSV U21

3/15/2019

Eerste Divisie · Round 29Cambuurstadion (Leeuwarden)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Cambuur55%

×Draw21%

Jong PSV U2124%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CambuurExpected goals in this matchJong PSV U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.35

Cambuur

2.13

Jong PSV U21

1.35

Cambuur creates 58% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 149 away

2.19

creates per match

1.52

1.19

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Cambuur

2.19

Jong PSV U21

1.52

allows per match

Cambuur

1.19

Jong PSV U21

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambuur+0.00on par

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambuur ↓

Jong PSV U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Cambuur or draw

76%

Cambuur or Jong PSV U21

79%

Draw or Jong PSV U21

45%

Winning margin

Cambuur wins by 2+

33%

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cambuur 1+ goals

88%

Cambuur 2+ goals

63%

Cambuur 3+ goals

35%

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals

74%

Jong PSV U21 2+ goals

39%

Jong PSV U21 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cambuur (draw refunded)

70%

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambuur at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambuur attack 2.19 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.13

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + Cambuur defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cambuur scores more

55%

level

21%

Jong PSV U21 scores more

24%

Cambuur at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cambuur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff