Cambridge United 2–1 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shrewsbury

S. Smith 76'

S. Tracey 67'

C. Saydee 64'

12/26/2022

League One · Round 23Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United40%

×Draw28%

Shrewsbury31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.04

Cambridge United

1.23

Shrewsbury

1.04

Cambridge United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 152 away

1.08

creates per match

0.86

1.22

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.08

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.22

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

69%

Cambridge United or Shrewsbury

72%

Draw or Shrewsbury

60%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

18%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

71%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

35%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

13%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

65%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

28%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

57%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cambridge United scores more

40%

level

28%

Shrewsbury scores more

31%

Cambridge United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

C. Saydee

Shrewsbury · F

7.7

Match Events

15'

24'

28'

56'

56'

J. Ironside← J. Lankester

64'

67'

72'

72'

76'

78'

84'

88'

90+5'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeShrewsbury

Overview

38%Possession62%

9Total Shots13

4Corners5

13Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots13

2On Target5

5Off Target5

2Blocked3

6Inside Box5

3Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

244Total Passes401

119Accurate Passes273

49%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury

Cambridge United beat Shrewsbury 2-1 in League One on December 26, 2022.

Goals: C. Saydee (64'), S. Tracey (67'), S. Smith (76').

Shrewsbury controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.

Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Shrewsbury