Cambridge United 2–3 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Leyton Orient

S. Smith 82' (pen)

J. Roles 69'

J. Maguire-Drew 45+2'

J. Wright 36'

J. Turley 29'

12/21/2019

League Two · Round 22Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Cambridge United43%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.07

Cambridge United

1.34

Leyton Orient

1.07

Cambridge United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 94 away

1.49

creates per match

1.17

0.97

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.49

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.97

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

70%

Cambridge United or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

57%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

20%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

74%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

39%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

15%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

66%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

29%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

59%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 65 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.49 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Cambridge United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cambridge United scores more

43%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

30%

Cambridge United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Roles

Cambridge United · M

7.8

Match Events

15'

George Marsh

29'

J. Turley↳ M. Ekpiteta

36'

38'

40'

41'

45'

45+2'

46'

63'

65'

67'

69'

M. Richards← H. Knibbs

69'

J. Roles↳ P. Lewis

76'

Greg Taylor

77'

H. Kyprianou← G. Marsh

77'

M. Harrold← J. Maguire-Drew

81'

Jamie Turley

82'

S. SmithPenalty

84'

84'

85'

85'

88'

J. Coulson← J. Brophy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeLeyton

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots10

5Corners7

13Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots10

7On Target5

1Off Target3

1Blocked2

7Inside Box8

2Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

414Total Passes289

292Accurate Passes172

71%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls15

4Yellow Cards7

1Red Cards1

1Offsides3